The most common and most likely answer to this crossword clue is the 10 letter word OVERTAXING
I've seen this crossword clue in Financial Times
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More clues leading to the result OVERTAXING
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The straight part
We know that "possible /outcome/ of HMRC estimate" is the straight/definition part of the clue. The straight part is often a synonym or definition, in this case possible /outcome/ of hmrc estimate = overtaxing.The cryptic/wordplay part
In cryptic crossword there's often an wordplay/cryptic part as well.This part involves a more complex hint, such as an anagram, homophone, hidden word, etc.
Sadly, We don't have an explanation for this specific crossword clue yet.
What does OVERTAXING mean?
OVERTAXING verb- To tax to an excessive degree
- To overburden